The Nationwide Federation of Impartial Enterprise (NFIB) reported a decline in small enterprise optimism for February, with its Small Enterprise Optimism Index falling by 2.1 factors to 100.7. Regardless of the decline, this marks the fourth consecutive month the index has remained above the 51-year common of 98. Nonetheless, the index stays 4.4 factors under its current peak of 105.1 recorded in December. In the meantime, the Uncertainty Index rose by 4 factors to 104, marking the second-highest studying ever recorded.
“Uncertainty is excessive and rising on Major Road, and for a lot of causes,” mentioned NFIB Chief Economist Invoice Dunkelberg. “These small enterprise house owners anticipating higher enterprise situations within the subsequent six months dropped and the p.c viewing the present interval as a great time to broaden fell, however stays nicely above the place it was within the fall. Inflation stays a serious drawback, ranked second behind the highest drawback, labor high quality.”
Key Findings from the Survey
- The web share of householders anticipating the financial system to enhance dropped by 10 factors to a internet damaging 37% (seasonally adjusted).
- The share of householders viewing the present interval as a great time to broaden fell 5 factors to 12%, marking the most important month-to-month lower since April 2020.
- Sixteen p.c of householders recognized inflation as their most vital drawback, a two-point lower from January, putting it just under labor high quality as the first concern.
- A internet 32% of householders reported elevating common promoting costs, a 10-point improve from January and the third highest in survey historical past.
- A seasonally adjusted internet 29% of householders plan value hikes over the following three months, up three factors from January and the best stage in 11 months.
- Stories of labor prices as the one most necessary drawback rose three factors to 12%, nearing the best recorded stage of 13% from December 2021.
Hiring Challenges and Wage Tendencies
The survey revealed continued hiring difficulties amongst small companies. A seasonally adjusted 38% of small enterprise house owners reported job openings they may not fill in February, up three factors from January and the best studying since August 2024. Among the many 53% of householders hiring or making an attempt to rent in February, 89% reported few or no certified candidates.
A internet 15% of small enterprise house owners plan to create new jobs within the subsequent three months, a three-point lower from January. Labor high quality stays the highest problem for enterprise house owners, rising one level to 19%, overtaking inflation because the main problem.
Seasonally adjusted, a internet 33% of householders reported elevating compensation, unchanged from January, whereas a internet 18% plan to lift compensation within the subsequent three months, down two factors from January.
Capital Expenditures and Gross sales Efficiency
Capital spending amongst small enterprise house owners remained regular, with 58% reporting capital outlays within the final six months, unchanged from January. Amongst these making expenditures:
- 37% invested in new tools.
- 30% bought automobiles.
- 13% expanded or improved services.
- 12% spent on new fixtures and furnishings.
- 5% acquired new buildings or land for enlargement.
The share of householders planning capital outlays within the subsequent six months declined by one level to 19%.
Gross sales developments confirmed some weakening, with a internet damaging 12% of householders reporting larger nominal gross sales over the previous three months, down two factors from January. The web share of householders anticipating larger actual gross sales volumes declined by six factors to 14%, marking the second consecutive month-to-month drop.
Stock and Financing Circumstances
Stock ranges remained secure, with a internet damaging 6% of householders reporting stock good points, unchanged from January. The share of householders planning stock funding declined by one level to a internet damaging 1%.
Financing situations confirmed minimal change. A internet 2% of small enterprise house owners reported that their final mortgage was tougher to acquire than earlier makes an attempt, down one level from January and the bottom studying since February 2022. Three p.c of householders cited financing and rates of interest as their high enterprise drawback, unchanged from January, whereas a internet 4% reported paying a better price on their most up-to-date mortgage.
New Enterprise Well being Evaluation
For the primary time, NFIB launched a brand new query assessing how small enterprise house owners view the general well being of their enterprise. In line with the survey:
- 11% rated their enterprise well being as glorious.
- 55% reported it pretty much as good.
- 27% described it as okay.
- 6% labeled their enterprise well being as dangerous.
The NFIB Small Enterprise Financial Tendencies report has been carried out quarterly since 1973 and month-to-month since 1986. The February 2025 survey was primarily based on responses from a random pattern of NFIB members and was launched on March 11, 2025.
